Roman Goncharenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roman Goncharenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 8.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €68k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1601 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1087
- Opponent strength
- 1198
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €73k – €199k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; relative output down 62% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -53% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1601 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NK Veres Rivne | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 1601 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1198 | 1087 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | NK Veres Rivne | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2508 | 93% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1210 | 1133 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | CB | 6 | 467 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1286 | 1143 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 1379 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1275 | 1191 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | NK Veres Rivne | Premier Liga | CB | 18 | 1592 | 98% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1302 | 1319 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | NK Veres Rivne | 3 | 325 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | NK Veres Rivne | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmytro Nemchaninov Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Zargo Touré Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Oleksandr Kucherenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 33 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Paul McGinn Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2022 | 33 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Ante Kulusic Super Lig · 2021 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Giannis Stathis Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Giannis Skondras Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €300k | €75k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Kolos Kovalivka | Veres Rivne | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Veres Rivne | Kolos Kovalivka | Free / loan | €400k |
| 7 Feb 2020 | Kremin | Veres Rivne | Free / loan | €125k |
| 10 Jul 2019 | Polissya | Kremin | Free / loan | €125k |
| 12 Mar 2019 | Ingulets | Polissya | Free / loan | €125k |
| 9 Jul 2017 | Cherk. Dnipro | Ingulets | Free / loan | €125k |
| 20 Jul 2015 | Unknown | Cherk. Dnipro | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.