Jakub Moder
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jakub Moder's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-6.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.1M-9.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-9.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (803 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 60.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.2M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 803 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1278
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €9.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-142 Elo); role change CM -> AM; relative output down 27% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 803 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 10 | 803 | 26% | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1278 | 1423 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 14 | 1200 | 39% | 3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 1286 | 1565 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | CM | 4 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1675 | 1614 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | CM | 17 | 613 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1609 | 1520 | 1.14 |
| 2021/22 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | CM | 28 | 1703 | 50% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1576 | 1537 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | LM | 12 | 647 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1616 | 1492 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1558 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 123 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Lech Poznan | 6 | 401 | 0 | 0 | 1548 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Lech Poznan | 4 | 343 | 0 | 1 | 1402 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin Super Lig · 2023 | 28 | €4.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dele Alli Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nenad Krsticic Super League 1 · 2019 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Kristijan Belic Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Tchê Tchê Premier Liga · 2019 | 27 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| José Cifuentes Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Chiquinho Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Kevin Castaño Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2025 | Brighton | Feyenoord | €1.5M | €10.0M |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Lech Poznan | Brighton | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Brighton | Lech Poznan | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 4 Oct 2020 | Lech Poznan | Brighton | €11.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Odra Opole | Lech Poznan | Free / loan | €650k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lech Poznan | Odra Opole | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lech Poznan II | Lech Poznan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Lech U19 | Lech Poznan II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Lech Youth | Lech U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Wa. Poznan Yth. | Lech Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.