Fabien Centonze
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fabien Centonze's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 43.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €331k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 733 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1452
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €336k – €877k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -57% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 733 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RB | 15 | 733 | 24% | 3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 1452 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RB | 7 | 262 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1391 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | RB | 10 | 675 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 1524 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RB | 3 | 92 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1445 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RB | 23 | 1691 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1432 | 1349 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RB | 19 | 1587 | 46% | 4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 1424 | 1308 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RB | 36 | 3222 | 94% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1441 | 1341 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RB | 28 | 2520 | 100% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 1433 | 1345 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Nantes | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Coeff Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Benjamin Mendy Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Thiago Cionek Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €900k | €800k | flat |
| Mickaël Alphonse Ligue 1 · 2019 | 30 | €900k | €650k | fell |
| Claudio Terzi Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Biagio Meccariello Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €550k | €250k | fell |
| Riccardo Fiamozzi Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Rovérsio Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €800k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Hellas Verona | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | FC Nantes | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 22 Sept 2022 | FC Metz | FC Nantes | €4.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Lens | FC Metz | €3.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Clermont Foot | Lens | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Thonon Évian | Clermont Foot | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Thonon Évian B | Évian | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.