Axel Disasi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Axel Disasi's performance-implied value at EUR 8.8M-24.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.4M-19.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.9M-11.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1255 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1621
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.9M – €11.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-177 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -72% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1255 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 14 | 1255 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1621 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CB | 7 | 488 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1591 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 6 | 364 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 1427 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 31 | 2581 | 75% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1565 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 38 | 3330 | 97% | 3 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1437 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 32 | 2724 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1433 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2016 | 59% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1468 | 1549 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | CB | 27 | 2430 | 96% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1420 | 1451 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | CB | 4 | 157 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1600 | 1421 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 255 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Chelsea FC | 2 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 3 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 1673 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 6 | 461 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 8 | 750 | 2 | 1 | 1493 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 6 | 412 | 2 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 3 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Godfrey Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Maximilian Wöber Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €14.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Benoît Assou-Ekotto Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €12.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Kevin Wimmer Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €10.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Davinson Sánchez Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Eliaquim Mangala Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €6.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Scott McKenna Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Guilherme Siqueira Laliga · 2016 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | West Ham | Chelsea | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Chelsea | West Ham | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Aston Villa | Chelsea | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Chelsea | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 4 Aug 2023 | Monaco | Chelsea | €45.0M | €30.0M |
| 7 Aug 2020 | Stade Reims | Monaco | €13.0M | €13.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Stade Reims B | Stade Reims | Unknown | €100k |
| 2 Jul 2016 | Paris FC B | Stade Reims B | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Paris FC U19 | Paris FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.