Davinson Sánchez

30 yrs · Centre-back · Colombia
Galatasaray · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€16.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€7.7M – €15.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.6M – €16.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.2M – €10.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€10.8M – €8.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€7.7M – €15.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.6M – €16.0M
Projected value (24 months)€4.2M – €10.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€16.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Davinson Sánchez's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-16.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-15.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-10.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 10

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh84.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €10.9M vs market €16.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-55% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €60.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2425 (79% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
85 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1501
Opponent strength
1255
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.2M – €10.0M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 59% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -53% to -27%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GalatasaraySuper LigCB30242579%100.040.03125515010.40
2024/25GalatasaraySuper LigCB31264982%310.140.06128215570.39
2023/24GalatasaraySuper LigCB23158846%200.110.05129915970.45
2023/24Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB1762%000.000.06162315881.14
2022/23Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB1885225%000.000.03151516061.23
2021/22Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB23162648%200.110.08155416591.17
2020/21Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB18148643%000.000.02152816471.19
2019/20Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB29243171%000.000.02161716301.14
2018/19Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB23194357%110.090.05151417321.22
2017/18Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueCB31253574%000.000.01151817691.15
2016/17Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB32276290%620.260.11134016270.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray111020101628
2025/26World CupColombia327000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray9707111484
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray4360021702
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray2180001503
2022/23Fa CupTottenham Hotspur327000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur219001600
2021/22Fa CupTottenham Hotspur19000—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur7660001556
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingTottenham Hotspur3253001384
2020/21Fa CupTottenham Hotspur221020—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur5450001591
2019/20Fa CupTottenham Hotspur430100—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur8631001689
2018/19Fa CupTottenham Hotspur216900—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur8720001723
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam2180101567
2017/18Fa CupTottenham Hotspur218000—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam121110001551
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam190001536

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Douglas Santos
Premier Liga · 2022
28€16.0M€12.0Mfell
Rúben Semedo
Super League 1 · 2021
27€8.0M€3.2Mfell
Clinton Mata
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
30€8.0M€4.0Mfell
Omar Elabdellaoui
Super League 1 · 2020
29€4.8M€1.3Mfell
Simon Kjær
Super Lig · 2017
28€11.0M€8.0Mfell
Min-jae Kim
Super Lig · 2022
26€14.0M€45.0Mrose
Rodrigão
Premier Liga · 2023
28€6.0M€3.0Mfell
Jack Hendry
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
27€5.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
4 Sept 2023TottenhamGalatasaray€9.5M€15.0M
23 Aug 2017AjaxTottenham€42.0M€25.0M
28 Jul 2016Atl. NacionalAjax€5.5M€550k
1 Jul 2014Nacional U20Atl. NacionalUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013CD América U20Nacional U20UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Davinson Sánchez · MoneyballAI