Riccardo Sottil
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Riccardo Sottil's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-6.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (1072 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1072 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1515
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-233 Elo); relative output up 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -32% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1072 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | LW | 21 | 1072 | 31% | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.46 | 1515 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LW | 18 | 829 | 24% | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 1468 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | LW | 6 | 118 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1448 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LW | 22 | 1108 | 32% | 2 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 1441 | 1583 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LW | 18 | 832 | 24% | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 1465 | 1597 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LW | 24 | 1241 | 36% | 3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 1473 | 1470 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | LW | 21 | 1191 | 35% | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 1453 | 1373 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RW | 18 | 505 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1435 | 1436 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LW | 2 | 18 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1507 | 1384 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 131 | 1 | 0 | 1417 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 82 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 105 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 133 | 0 | 1 | 1467 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 5 | 193 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 201 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 3 | 106 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Ezequiel Ponce Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Maxime Lestienne Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Duje Cop Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Opa Nguette Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Massimo Coda Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Simon Zoller Bundesliga · 2018 | 27 | €1.8M | €600k | fell |
| Dennis Oliech Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Lecce | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Fiorentina | Lecce | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | AC Milan | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | AC Milan | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Cagliari | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 10 Sept 2020 | Fiorentina | Cagliari | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Pescara | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 27 Jan 2019 | Fiorentina | Pescara | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Fiorentina U19 | Fiorentina | Unknown | €350k |
| 19 Jul 2016 | Fiorentina U17 | Fiorentina U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Torino U17 | Fiorentina U17 | €500k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Torino FC Youth | Torino U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Genoa CFC Youth | Torino FC Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.