Darko Churlinov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Darko Churlinov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1054 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €516k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1054 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1216
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €645k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -63% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1054 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kocaelispor | Super Lig | LW | 26 | 1054 | 34% | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 1216 | 1188 | 0.40 |
| 2022/23 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | AM | 1 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1650 | 1429 | 1.04 |
| 2020/21 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | LM | 14 | 204 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.26 | 1474 | 1462 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | LW | 1 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1542 | 1407 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 157 | 0 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 4 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 75 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramazan Civelek Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €1.0M | flat |
| Selim Ilgaz Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.0M | €250k | fell |
| Armin Hodzic Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €1.7M | €250k | fell |
| Anastasios Chatzigiovanis Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
| Alassane Ndao Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €2.2M | €1.3M | fell |
| Ercan Kara Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
| Kevin Rosero Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Christian Bassogog Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Burnley | Kocaelispor | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Jagiellonia | Burnley | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 7 Aug 2024 | Burnley | Jagiellonia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Schalke 04 | Burnley | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 23 Jan 2024 | Burnley | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 19 Aug 2022 | Stuttgart | Burnley | €3.5M | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Schalke 04 | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 18 Aug 2021 | Stuttgart | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 8 Jan 2020 | 1.FC Köln | Stuttgart | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | 1.FC Köln U19 | 1.FC Köln | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Magdeburg U17 | 1.FC Köln U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | H. Rostock Yth. | Magdeburg U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Elmenhorst Jgd. | H. Rostock Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Vardar Yth. | Elmenhorst Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Rabotnicki Yth. | Vardar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.