Yegor Demchenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yegor Demchenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (617 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €151k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 617 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 0 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1091
- Opponent strength
- 1171
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €166k – €265k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR +0% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 617 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi | Premier Liga | CM | 17 | 617 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 1171 | 1091 | 0.25 |
| 2022/23 | Metalist Kharkiv | Premier Liga | CM | 22 | 1276 | 47% | 1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 1287 | 1089 | 0.38 |
| 2019/20 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | AM | 3 | 97 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1348 | 1229 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Metalurg Zaporizhya (-2016) | Premier Liga | CM | 6 | 325 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1421 | 997 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Ukrainian Cup | Metalurg Zaporizhya (-2016) | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitaliy Grusha Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| David Carson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Kyle Turner Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €375k | €375k | flat |
| Javier Mendoza Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €250k | €400k | rose |
| Valeriy Rogozynskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Michal Skvarka Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Marko Bakic Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Bogdan Myshenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €200k | €200k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2025 | FSC Mariupol | Epicentr | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Aug 2024 | Karpaty Lviv | FSC Mariupol | Free / loan | €300k |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Metalist | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €300k |
| 20 Aug 2020 | Avangard K. | FC Metal | Free / loan | €200k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Kolos Kovalivka | Avangard K. | Free / loan | €250k |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Avangard K. | Kolos Kovalivka | Free / loan | €250k |
| 11 Mar 2017 | Without Club | Avangard K. | Unknown | €200k |
| 4 Jan 2017 | Olimpik Donetsk | Without Club | Unknown | €200k |
| 28 Nov 2016 | Without Club | Olimpik Donetsk | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bukovyna | Without Club | Unknown | €200k |
| 5 Apr 2016 | Zorya II | Bukovyna | Free / loan | €200k |
| 25 Jan 2016 | Metalurg Z. | Zorya II | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Metalurg Z. II | Metalurg Z. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Zaporizhya U19 | Metalurg Z. II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Metalurg Z. U17 | Zaporizhya U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.