Bahadır Güngördü

30 yrs · Goalkeeper · Türkiye
Konyaspor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€700k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€164k – €576k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€277k – €729k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€272k – €636k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€299k – €565k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€164k – €576k
Model value (performance-implied)€277k – €729k
Projected value (24 months)€272k – €636k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Bahadır Güngördü's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 76

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average15.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €219k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1980 (65% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
15 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1230
Opponent strength
1271
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€272k – €636k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -39% to -11%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KonyasporSuper LigGK22198065%000.000.00127112300.40
2023/24MKE AnkaragücüSuper LigGK32283783%010.030.02130012180.45
2022/23MKE AnkaragücüSuper LigGK14104732%000.000.00130112260.50

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev
Super Lig · 2024
30€900k€700kfell
Ernestas Setkus
Super League 1 · 2015
30€450k€500kflat
Devis Epassy
Super League 1 · 2022
29€600k€600kflat
Scott Fox
Scottish Premiership · 2016
29€500k€350kfell
Yevgen Galchuk
Premier Liga · 2022
30€500k€200kfell
Andreas Gianniotis
Super League 1 · 2022
30€600k€500kflat
Bojan Saranov
Super League 1 · 2019
32€350k€50kfell
Boris Kleyman
Super League 1 · 2022
32€350k€300kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2025Igdir FKKonyasporFree / loan€600k
17 Jan 2025KonyasporIgdir FKFree / loan€700k
16 Jan 2025AnkaragücüKonyasporUnknown€700k
5 Aug 2021Ankara DemirAnkaragücüFree / loan€25k
14 Sept 2020BolusporAnkara DemirFree / loan€25k
17 Jan 2020Without ClubBolusporUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2019TrabzonsporWithout ClubUnknown€50k
30 Jun 20191461 TrabzonTrabzonsporFree / loan€50k
29 Aug 2018Trabzonspor1461 TrabzonFree / loan€50k
30 Jun 2018Ankara DemirTrabzonsporFree / loan€150k
5 Aug 2016TrabzonsporAnkara DemirFree / loan€50k
28 Jul 2016KarabüksporTrabzonsporFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2015Karabükspor U19KarabüksporUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Karabükspor YthKarabükspor U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Bahadır Güngördü · MoneyballAI