
Bahadır Güngördü
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bahadır Güngördü's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €219k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1980 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1230
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €272k – €636k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -39% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | GK | 22 | 1980 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1271 | 1230 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | GK | 32 | 2837 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1300 | 1218 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | GK | 14 | 1047 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1301 | 1226 | 0.50 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev Super Lig · 2024 | 30 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Ernestas Setkus Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| Devis Epassy Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Scott Fox Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 29 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Yevgen Galchuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Andreas Gianniotis Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Bojan Saranov Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €350k | €50k | fell |
| Boris Kleyman Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €350k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Igdir FK | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €600k |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Konyaspor | Igdir FK | Free / loan | €700k |
| 16 Jan 2025 | Ankaragücü | Konyaspor | Unknown | €700k |
| 5 Aug 2021 | Ankara Demir | Ankaragücü | Free / loan | €25k |
| 14 Sept 2020 | Boluspor | Ankara Demir | Free / loan | €25k |
| 17 Jan 2020 | Without Club | Boluspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Trabzonspor | Without Club | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | 1461 Trabzon | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 29 Aug 2018 | Trabzonspor | 1461 Trabzon | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Ankara Demir | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €150k |
| 5 Aug 2016 | Trabzonspor | Ankara Demir | Free / loan | €50k |
| 28 Jul 2016 | Karabükspor | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Karabükspor U19 | Karabükspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Karabükspor Yth | Karabükspor U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.