Callum Hendry
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Callum Hendry's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.58x the positional average in the league (709 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €60k vs market €150k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 709 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1199
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €124k – €254k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -38% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 709 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 16 | 709 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1199 | 1245 | 0.31 |
| 2021/22 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 15 | 1162 | 39% | 6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.66 | 1300 | 1226 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 16 | 692 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1296 | 1307 | 0.54 |
| 2020/21 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 8 | 273 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 1287 | 1336 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 20 | 658 | 25% | 7 | 1 | 1.09 | 0.93 | 1315 | 1260 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 7 | 174 | 6% | 1 | 1 | 1.03 | 0.61 | 1251 | 1214 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 3 | 87 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1204 | 1255 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | St. Johnstone FC | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1388 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 160 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 3 | 162 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis Guthrie Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €225k | €150k | fell |
| Harry McKirdy Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €225k | €100k | fell |
| Joe Cardle Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Darko Bodul Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 27 | €300k | €600k | rose |
| Fabricio Alvarenga Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Henri Anier Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 27 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Volodymyr Odaryuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Jordy Hiwula Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €300k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2025 | MK Dons | Motherwell FC | Unknown | €225k |
| 12 Jul 2024 | Salford | MK Dons | Unknown | €325k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | St. Johnstone | Salford | Free / loan | €425k |
| 24 Jan 2022 | Kilmarnock FC | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €350k |
| 29 Sept 2021 | St. Johnstone | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €350k |
| 16 May 2021 | Aberdeen FC | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | St. Johnstone | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €350k |
| 25 Jan 2019 | Brechin City | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Aug 2018 | St. Johnstone | Brechin City | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Blackburn U23 | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Blackburn U18 | Blackburn U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Nov 2015 | Clitheroe | Blackburn U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Sept 2015 | Blackburn U18 | Clitheroe | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.