
Igor Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €811k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1213 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1454
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €446k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -67% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1213 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CB | 17 | 1213 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1454 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | RB | 5 | 259 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1494 | 1335 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | RB | 7 | 457 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1419 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | RB | 28 | 1572 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1435 | 1335 | 0.86 |
| 2017/18 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RB | 12 | 832 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1250 | 1332 | 0.48 |
| 2017/18 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RB | 2 | 104 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1223 | 1484 | 0.48 |
| 2016/17 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RB | 15 | 1219 | 45% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1300 | 1217 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1365 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 530 | 0 | 0 | 1481 |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 125 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 4 | 265 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaël Angoula Ligue 1 · 2013 | 31 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Ahmet Cebe Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €750k | €250k | fell |
| Benjamin Angoua Ligue 1 · 2016 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fábio Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Alberto Rodríguez Liga Portugal · 2013 | 29 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Luis Pérez Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.4M | flat |
| Marek Cech Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Dusan Veskovac Ligue 1 · 2014 | 28 | €900k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FC Lorient | Without Club | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 23 Jul 2021 | NK Osijek | FC Lorient | €2.5M | €1.2M |
| 2 Aug 2020 | Olympiacos | NK Osijek | €1.1M | €850k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | NK Osijek | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €850k |
| 12 Aug 2019 | Olympiacos | NK Osijek | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | AEK Larnaca | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €750k |
| 20 Jul 2018 | Olympiacos | AEK Larnaca | Free / loan | €400k |
| 9 Jan 2018 | Asteras Tripoli | Olympiacos | €350k | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Comercial-SP | Asteras Tripoli | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | A. Tripolis U20 | Comercial-SP | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Aug 2015 | Comercial-SP | A. Tripolis U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.