Igor Silva

30 yrs · Right-back (also CB) · Brazil
FC Lorient · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 173 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€346k – €1.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€688k – €2.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€446k – €1.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€833k – €2.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€346k – €1.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€688k – €2.7M
Projected value (24 months)€446k – €1.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Igor Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 38

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage51th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €811k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-39% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1213 (40% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
51 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1420
Opponent strength
1454
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€446k – €1.2M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -67% to -24%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1213 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC LorientLigue 1CB17121340%100.070.09145414200.88
2023/24FC LorientLigue 1RB52598%000.000.15149413350.87
2022/23FC LorientLigue 1RB745713%000.000.10141913960.82
2021/22FC LorientLigue 1RB28157246%000.000.05143513350.86
2017/18A.G.S Asteras TripolisSuper League 1RB1283231%000.000.07125013320.48
2017/18Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RB21044%000.000.07122314840.48
2016/17A.G.S Asteras TripolisSuper League 1RB15121945%110.150.16130012170.44

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingAEK Larnaca6540001365
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueAEK Larnaca6530001481
2017/18Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis212501—
2016/17Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis426500—
2015/16Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis11800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Gaël Angoula
Ligue 1 · 2013
31€800k€250kfell
Ahmet Cebe
Super Lig · 2013
30€750k€250kfell
Benjamin Angoua
Ligue 1 · 2016
30€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Fábio
Ligue 1 · 2019
29€2.5M€1.8Mfell
Alberto Rodríguez
Liga Portugal · 2013
29€1.8M€1.0Mfell
Luis Pérez
Laliga · 2023
28€1.5M€1.4Mflat
Marek Cech
Super Lig · 2013
30€1.5M€300kfell
Dusan Veskovac
Ligue 1 · 2014
28€900k€800kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026FC LorientWithout ClubUnknown€1.2M
23 Jul 2021NK OsijekFC Lorient€2.5M€1.2M
2 Aug 2020OlympiacosNK Osijek€1.1M€850k
31 Jul 2020NK OsijekOlympiacosFree / loan€850k
12 Aug 2019OlympiacosNK OsijekFree / loan€750k
30 Jun 2019AEK LarnacaOlympiacosFree / loan€750k
20 Jul 2018OlympiacosAEK LarnacaFree / loan€400k
9 Jan 2018Asteras TripoliOlympiacos€350k€350k
1 Jul 2016Comercial-SPAsteras TripoliFree / loan€75k
30 Jun 2016A. Tripolis U20Comercial-SPFree / loan€75k
30 Aug 2015Comercial-SPA. Tripolis U20Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.