Marco Grüll
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marco Grüll's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-4.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.63x the positional average in the league (2012 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.1M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2012 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; team strength down (-104 Elo); role change ST -> RW; relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -63% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | RW | 33 | 2012 | 66% | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 1482 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 1180 | 39% | 6 | 2 | 0.61 | 0.53 | 1513 | 1483 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 4 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalifa Coulibaly Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Nordin Amrabat Premier League · 2017 | 30 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Isaac Success Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jamie Mackie Premier League · 2013 | 28 | €3.5M | €1.3M | fell |
| Stefano Okaka Serie A · 2015 | 26 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Moi Gómez Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Chris Ramos Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Cyle Larin Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Rapid Vienna | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | SV Ried | Rapid Vienna | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 10 Jan 2019 | St. Johann | SV Ried | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Pfarrwerfen | St. Johann | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Pfarrwerfen J. | Pfarrwerfen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Career break | Pfarrwerfen J. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Radstadt Yth. | Career break | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.