Hjalmar Ekdal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hjalmar Ekdal's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-6.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-4.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.9M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1540 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1615
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €4.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+145 Elo); league level up (+297 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -53% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1540 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 19 | 1540 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1615 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CB | 14 | 1241 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1331 | 1197 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 8 | 438 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1574 | 1366 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 48 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Troost-Ekong Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Scott McKenna Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Florent Hadergjonaj Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Andrew Taylor Premier League · 2014 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sam Byram Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marc Muniesa Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Nedum Onuoha Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | FC Groningen | Burnley | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 23 Jan 2025 | Burnley | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Djurgården | Burnley | €2.8M | €3.5M |
| 8 Jan 2021 | Hammarby | Djurgården | €70k | €600k |
| 30 Nov 2020 | Sirius | Hammarby | Free / loan | €400k |
| 3 Mar 2020 | Hammarby | Sirius | Free / loan | €125k |
| 30 Nov 2019 | IK Frej Täby | Hammarby | Free / loan | €125k |
| 20 Jul 2019 | Hammarby | IK Frej Täby | Free / loan | €125k |
| 19 Jul 2019 | IK Frej Täby | Hammarby | Unknown | €125k |
| 30 Nov 2018 | Assyriska FF | IK Frej Täby | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 9 Jun 2018 | IK Frej Täby | Assyriska FF | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2018 | UNC Wilmington | IK Frej Täby | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Jun 2017 | Brommapojkarna | UNC Wilmington | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | IF Bromma U19 | Brommapojkarna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.