Jonathan Panzo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonathan Panzo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1095 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1298
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €702k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -36% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1095 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 14 | 1095 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1298 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 18 | 1291 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1359 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 5 | 218 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1434 | 1334 | 0.63 |
| 2020/21 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | CB | 22 | 1804 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1464 | 1211 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 17 | 1404 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 1401 | 1202 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CB | 2 | 106 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1577 | 1426 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Birmingham City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Coventry City | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pau Cendrós Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Birol Parlak Super Lig · 2016 | 26 | €1.0M | €150k | fell |
| Yordan Osorio Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Patrick William Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Kevin Andrade Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Laurens Paulussen Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Khusniddin Alikulov Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Alex Pinto Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Rio Ave | Birmingham | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Nott'm Forest | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Rio Ave | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Standard Liège | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Cardiff | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Nott'm Forest | Cardiff | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Coventry | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 13 Jul 2022 | Nott'm Forest | Coventry | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Dijon | Nott'm Forest | €1.7M | €2.5M |
| 26 Aug 2020 | Monaco B | Dijon | €3.4M | €2.7M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Cercle Brugge | Monaco B | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Monaco B | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 6 Jul 2018 | Chelsea U18 | Monaco B | €3.0M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.