Kevin Andrade
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kevin Andrade's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.0M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2255 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1355
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €4.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -35% to +62%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2255 | 84% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1355 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | CB | 12 | 1035 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1348 | 1187 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 5 | 405 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maksim Osipenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Yohan Tavares Liga Portugal · 2016 | 28 | €2.8M | €600k | fell |
| Anele Ngcongca Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Dmitriy Skopintsev Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Kara Mbodj Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 26 | €4.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Aleksandr Soldatenkov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Miroslav Bogosavac Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.3M | flat |
| César Arzo Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Baltika | Zenit S-Pb | €3.5M | €3.5M |
| 17 Jan 2024 | CD América | Baltika | €400k | €750k |
| 31 May 2022 | Platense | CD América | Free / loan | €500k |
| 4 Feb 2022 | CD América | Platense | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | CD América U20 | CD América | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.