Aleksandr Soldatenkov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandr Soldatenkov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2352 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1207
- Opponent strength
- 1344
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €679k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 413% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -46% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1979 | 73% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1344 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 6 | 373 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 1315 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 2070 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1316 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2340 | 87% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1333 | 1257 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 2250 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1319 | 1270 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1993 | 74% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1349 | 1289 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 4 | 339 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordi Amat Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 28 | €1.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| Larrys Mabiala Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Kirill Gotsuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Nuno Pinto Liga Portugal · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Iván Márquez Eredivisie · 2023 | 29 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Rúben Fernandes Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 30 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €900k | €550k | fell |
| Ari Freyr Skúlason Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 31 | €900k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2025 | KS Samara | FK Sochi | €1.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Chertanovo | KS Samara | €200k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Chertanovo II | Chertanovo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Akad Chertanovo | Chertanovo II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.