Boubacar Kamara
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Boubacar Kamara's performance-implied value at EUR 39.5M-48.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.0M-50.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.8M-32.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1418 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €39.9M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1418 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1586
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.8M – €32.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 100% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -66% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1418 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | DM | 18 | 1418 | 41% | 1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1586 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | DM | 26 | 1728 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1572 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | DM | 20 | 1661 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1573 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | DM | 24 | 1781 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1599 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 34 | 2781 | 81% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1437 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 35 | 2905 | 85% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1432 | 1455 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 2141 | 85% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1425 | 1539 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2410 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1459 | 1477 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 6 | 455 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 1431 | 1601 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 6 | 265 | 0 | 1 | 1512 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 10 | 701 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 4 | 322 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 3 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aston Villa | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 1229 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 347 | 0 | 0 | 1474 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 388 | 0 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2020/21 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 368 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 537 | 0 | 0 | 1465 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ramsey Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €40.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Jesse Lingard Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €35.0M | €17.5M | fell |
| Jack Wilshere Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €20.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €40.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Mateo Kovacic Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €42.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Christian Pulisic Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €42.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Isco Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €60.0M | €18.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Marseille | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Marseille B | Marseille | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Marseille U17 | Marseille B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Marseille Yth | Marseille U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.