Ivan Sergeev

The model rates Ivan Sergeev's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1617 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1617 (60% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.72

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.56

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

45 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.56 (rank 10)

Team strength (Elo)

1423

Opponent strength

1330

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€646k – €1.6M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; changed club; team strength up (+163 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -76% (IQR -78% to -62%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1617 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
• ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

20 (ATT)

Relative output kept

76%–104%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

50%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.