Rodrigo Escoval
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Escoval's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €269k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 920 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1212
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €370k – €687k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 51 pts; relative output down 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -44% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 920 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CB | 20 | 920 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1352 | 1212 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2297 | 85% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1314 | 1260 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | CB | 19 | 1373 | 45% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1380 | 1199 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | CB | 25 | 2230 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1242 | 1219 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 2 | 167 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Radovanovic Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 30 | €550k | €900k | rose |
| Kiki Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Khalid Karami Eredivisie · 2019 | 30 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Vladimir Poluyakhtov Premier Liga · 2019 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Jordens Peters Eredivisie · 2018 | 31 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Ousmane Viera Super Lig · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Sergiy Lyulka Premier Liga · 2018 | 28 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Gonçalo Brandão Liga Portugal · 2017 | 31 | €900k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Vizela | Akron Tolyatti | Free / loan | €400k |
| 20 Jul 2023 | Volos NFC | Vizela | Free / loan | €500k |
| 9 Jul 2022 | Anorthosis | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | HNK Rijeka | Anorthosis | Free / loan | €300k |
| 19 Jan 2018 | NK Istra | HNK Rijeka | Unknown | €150k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Benfica B | NK Istra | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Casa Pia U19 | Benfica U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2014 | Benfica U19 | Casa Pia U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Sacavenense F. | Benfica Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.