Dennis Man
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dennis Man's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-10.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.6M-17.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.9M-16.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (1496 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1496 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.84
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1606
- Opponent strength
- 1286
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.9M – €16.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+264 Elo); league level down (-220 Elo); relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -41% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1496 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 25 | 1496 | 49% | 7 | 7 | 0.84 | 0.32 | 1286 | 1606 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | RW | 33 | 1999 | 58% | 4 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.72 | 1508 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2020/21 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | RW | 14 | 698 | 20% | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 1476 | 1252 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 458 | 2 | 0 | 1672 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 104 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FCSB | 2 | 198 | 3 | 1 | 1300 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Pardo Super League 1 · 2016 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Georgios Masouras Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Andrija Zivkovic Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Taison Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Diego Rossi Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €9.5M | €8.5M | flat |
| Bernard Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €14.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Alfredo Morelos Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €6.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Brown Ideye Super League 1 · 2017 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | Parma | PSV | €9.1M | €10.0M |
| 29 Jan 2021 | FCSB | Parma | €12.6M | €6.5M |
| 5 Sept 2016 | UTA BD | Steaua Bucharest | €1.9M | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | UTA Arad U19 | UTA BD | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Atletico Arad | UTA Arad U19 | €175k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Vladimirescu | Atletico Arad | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.