Harvey Barnes

The model rates Harvey Barnes's performance-implied value at EUR 27.5M-38.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-34.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.8M-19.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1961 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1961 (57% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.37

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.35

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

96 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1631

Opponent strength

1600

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€10.8M – €19.5M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 32% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -71% to -39%).

• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.