Nikolas Nartey
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolas Nartey's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-12.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-12.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.0M-14.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1256 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.9M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1256 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1511
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.0M – €14.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -54% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1256 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | AM | 28 | 1256 | 41% | 4 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 1511 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CM | 1 | 21 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1565 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CM | 9 | 473 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1539 | 1429 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CM | 8 | 401 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1528 | 1425 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | CM | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1456 | 1387 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 126 | 0 | 1 | 1523 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amin Younes Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Yacine Adli Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Yusuf Yazıcı Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Danilo Cataldi Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Marco van Ginkel Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €7.5M | €7.5M | flat |
| Rubén Pardo Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Danny da Costa Bundesliga · 2018 | 25 | €3.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Robert Skov Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2021 | SV Sandhausen | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Stuttgart | SV Sandhausen | Free / loan | €450k |
| 5 Jul 2020 | Hansa Rostock | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Aug 2019 | Stuttgart | Hansa Rostock | Free / loan | €300k |
| 29 Aug 2019 | 1.FC Köln | Stuttgart | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | 1.FC Köln II | 1.FC Köln | Unknown | €300k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Copenhagen U19 | 1.FC Köln II | €400k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AB Youth | FCK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.