Danny da Costa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danny da Costa's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-5.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €523k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2698 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €399k – €980k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 22 pts; relative output up 122% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -57% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 2698 | 88% | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 1495 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 2010 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1506 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 19 | 826 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1527 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 23 | 1237 | 40% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1484 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | RM | 11 | 724 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1618 | 1594 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 16 | 1215 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.18 | 1561 | 1481 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | RM | 6 | 106 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1504 | 1602 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | RM | 19 | 1388 | 45% | 1 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 1509 | 1535 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | RM | 34 | 3035 | 99% | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1499 | 1593 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | RM | 17 | 1199 | 39% | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 1531 | 1479 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RB | 3 | 109 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.13 | 1411 | 1547 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | Bundesliga | RB | 20 | 1524 | 50% | 0 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 1543 | 1423 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1335 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 130 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 1393 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 538 | 1 | 1 | 1584 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 444 | 1 | 4 | 1326 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 127 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 14 | 1257 | 2 | 1 | 1606 |
| 2018/19 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1863 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 218 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Verhaegh Bundesliga · 2017 | 34 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Vangelis Moras Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Emiliano Moretti Serie A · 2014 | 33 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Óscar de Marcos Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Damián Suárez Laliga · 2022 | 34 | €1.5M | €650k | fell |
| Andrea Masiello Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Daniel Congré Ligue 1 · 2019 | 34 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Loïc Perrin Ligue 1 · 2019 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Frankfurt | Mainz | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Mainz | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 22 Jan 2021 | Frankfurt | Mainz | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Leverkusen | Frankfurt | €1.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Ingolstadt | Leverkusen | €500k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Leverkusen | FC Ingolstadt | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | FC Ingolstadt | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 3 Jul 2012 | Leverkusen | FC Ingolstadt | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Leverkusen U19 | Leverkusen | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Leverkusen U17 | Leverkusen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Leverkusen Yth. | Leverkusen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | W. Mülheim Yth. | Leverkusen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.