Gabriel Batista
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Batista's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2880 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1276
- Opponent strength
- 1327
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -61% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1327 | 1275 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1351 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | GK | 26 | 2340 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1428 | 1208 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1300 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Unnerstall Eredivisie · 2019 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ilya Lantratov Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Erwin Mulder Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sergio Padt Eredivisie · 2018 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Léo Jardim Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Eloy Room Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Harun Tekin Super Lig · 2018 | 29 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Ricardo Velho Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2022 | Flamengo | Santa Clara | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Aug 2022 | Sampaio-MA | Flamengo | Free / loan | €500k |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Flamengo | Sampaio-MA | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.