Ricardo Velho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ricardo Velho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2070 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1161
- Opponent strength
- 1284
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €3.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level down (-54 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -28% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | GK | 23 | 2070 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1284 | 1160 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | SC Farense | Liga Portugal | GK | 28 | 2520 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1368 | 1184 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SC Farense | Liga Portugal | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1397 | 1246 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gökhan Akkan Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.6M | flat |
| Giorgi Loria Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Etienne Vaessen Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Evgeniy Latyshonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Ivan Lomaev Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| İrfan Can Eğribayat Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Bilal Bayazıt Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| William Dutoit Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Genclerbirligi | Farense | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 12 Sept 2025 | Farense | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Braga B | Farense | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Braga U19 | Braga B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Braga U17 | Braga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Palmeiras U17 | Braga U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Braga U15 | Palmeiras U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Trofense U15 | Braga U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Trofense Yth | Trofense U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Salgueiros Y | Trofense Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | FC Porto Youth | Salgueiros Y | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Vitória SC Yth | FC Porto Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.