Aleksey Mironov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksey Mironov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (2204 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2204 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1333
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €923k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -37% to +71%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CM | 28 | 2204 | 82% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1333 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CM | 2 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1343 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CM | 15 | 873 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 1340 | 1317 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | CM | 26 | 1395 | 52% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1333 | 1343 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 3 | 192 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 3 | 136 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 7 | 439 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaleem Hyland Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 27 | €1.0M | €950k | flat |
| Mert Hakan Yandaş Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.6M | €3.5M | rose |
| Felipe Gutiérrez Eredivisie · 2016 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mohammed Osman Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.1M | fell |
| Ivan Trickovski Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €900k | €750k | flat |
| João Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Carlinhos Liga Portugal · 2020 | 26 | €650k | €1.2M | rose |
| Michael Lumb Superliga · 2014 | 26 | €600k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Rostov | €250k | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Orenburg | Loko-Kazanka M. | Free / loan | €450k |
| 14 Aug 2020 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Orenburg | Free / loan | €250k |
| 2 Aug 2018 | Loko Moscow II | Loko-Kazanka M. | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ak. Loko U17 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | €250k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.