João Carvalho

The model rates João Carvalho's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-4.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.53x the positional average in the league (2798 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2798 (91% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.58

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.62

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

56 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 9)

Team strength (Elo)

1305

Opponent strength

1338

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€1.9M – €4.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; relative output up 40% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -62% to -35%).

• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

58 (MID)

Relative output kept

72%–151%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

78%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.