Dario Špikić
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dario Špikić's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1798 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €651k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1798 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1337
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €450k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -40% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1798 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LW | 30 | 1798 | 59% | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 1337 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | RW | 6 | 390 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1265 | 1288 | 0.35 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 5 | 184 | 1 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Alves Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €950k | €800k | flat |
| Furdjel Narsingh Eredivisie · 2015 | 27 | €650k | €450k | fell |
| Joca Liga Portugal · 2024 | 28 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Petar Skuletic Super Lig · 2018 | 28 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Gilles Sunu Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €750k | €300k | fell |
| Marvin Pourié Superliga · 2017 | 26 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Ronnie Schwartz Superliga · 2016 | 27 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
| Felippe Cardoso Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb | Rio Ave | €600k | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Aris Saloniki | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | HNK Gorica | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 5 Feb 2021 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNK Gorica | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 4 Feb 2021 | HNK Gorica | Dinamo Zagreb | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 20 Jan 2020 | Hajduk Split II | HNK Gorica | Free / loan | €50k |
| 16 Jul 2018 | Din. Zagreb II | Hajduk Split II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Jan 2017 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Din. Zagreb II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Din. Zagreb U17 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | D. Zagreb Yth. | Din. Zagreb U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2007 | NK Kurilovec | D. Zagreb Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.