Lewis Mayo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lewis Mayo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €386k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1756 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1212
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €296k – €774k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo); relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -46% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1756 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 21 | 1756 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1212 | 1104 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 32 | 2815 | 95% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1244 | 1171 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 32 | 2849 | 96% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1257 | 1243 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 30 | 2488 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1298 | 1144 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1383 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Gordon Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Theodoros Tripotseris Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Yaya Banana Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Connor Randall Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 28 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Marc McAusland Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 27 | €450k | €25k | fell |
| Ryan Leak Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Wajdi Kechrida Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Charles Dunne Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 26 | €400k | €325k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Kilmarnock FC | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €600k |
| 20 Jul 2023 | Rangers | Kilmarnock FC | Unknown | €350k |
| 31 May 2023 | Kilmarnock FC | Rangers | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Rangers | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 9 May 2022 | Partick Thistle | Rangers | Free / loan | €275k |
| 27 Jul 2021 | Rangers | Partick Thistle | Free / loan | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rangers B | Rangers | Unknown | €275k |
| 9 May 2021 | Dunfermline A. | Rangers B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 25 Sept 2020 | Rangers B | Dunfermline A. | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Apr 2020 | Partick Thistle | Rangers B | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Rangers B | Partick Thistle | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rangers U20 | Rangers B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rangers FC U17 | Rangers U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.