Denis Drăguș

27 yrs · Striker (also LW, RW) · Romania
Gaziantep FK · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€690k – €1.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€309k – €1.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€766k – €2.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.4M – €338k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€690k – €1.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€309k – €1.0M
Projected value (24 months)€766k – €2.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Denis Drăguș's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (1202 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 61

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average12.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.1M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-41% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1202 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.24
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
13 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1194
Opponent strength
1295
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€766k – €2.2M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-113 Elo); role change LW -> RW.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -40% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1202 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (ATT)
Relative output kept
79%–133%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
58%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26EyüpsporSuper LigRW1287829%000.000.24129512040.40
2025/26Gaziantep FKSuper LigST1132411%010.280.51128911670.40
2024/25TrabzonsporSuper LigLW1891428%210.300.34129113070.39
2023/24Gaziantep FKSuper LigST32275781%1420.520.71128912120.45
2023/24Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueST631512%100.290.49132613340.63
2022/23Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueST1999733%400.360.47132413810.58
2021/22Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueST28116838%620.620.55133812480.49
2020/21FC CrotoneSerie AST91715%000.000.63150112530.90
2019/20Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueST250%000.000.42137414580.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingTrabzonspor4288101379
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingTrabzonspor250001443
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingFCV Farul Constanta128001478

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Anastasios Chatzigiovanis
Super Lig · 2024
27€1.8M€900kfell
Ramazan Civelek
Super Lig · 2022
26€1.1M€1.0Mflat
Christian Bassogog
Super Lig · 2024
29€1.5M€900kfell
Alassane Ndao
Super Lig · 2023
27€2.2M€1.3Mfell
Zymer Bytyqi
Super Lig · 2024
28€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Aleksandr Zuev
Premier Liga · 2022
26€1.0M€900kflat
Riad Bajic
Super Lig · 2020
26€1.4M€1.5Mflat
Mustapha Bundu
Superliga · 2022
25€1.0M€1.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Gaziantep FKTrabzonsporFree / loan€2.0M
9 Jan 2026TrabzonsporGaziantep FKFree / loan€3.0M
8 Jan 2026EyüpsporTrabzonsporFree / loan€3.0M
18 Jul 2025TrabzonsporEyüpsporFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2024Standard LiègeTrabzonspor€1.7M€4.0M
30 Jun 2024Gaziantep FKStandard LiègeFree / loan€4.0M
13 Sept 2023Standard LiègeGaziantep FKFree / loan€1.4M
30 Jun 2023GenoaStandard LiègeFree / loan€1.4M
26 Jan 2023Standard LiègeGenoaFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2021CrotoneStandard LiègeFree / loan€900k
15 Sept 2020Standard LiègeCrotoneFree / loan€1.3M
7 Aug 2019FC ViitorulStandard Liège€1.8M€2.0M
1 Aug 2017FC Viitorul U19FC ViitorulUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Academia HagiFC Viitorul U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Pro LuceafărulAcademia HagiFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.