Ole Pohlmann
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ole Pohlmann's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (1731 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €979k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1731 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1302
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €700k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -34% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1731 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | AM | 31 | 1731 | 57% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 1302 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | AM | 28 | 1606 | 52% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.29 | 1368 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 2 | 52 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1417 | 1716 | 1.01 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daan Heymans Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 25 | €1.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Dmytro Grechyshkin Premier Liga · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Maksim Vityugov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Zeki Yildirim Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €1.5M | €850k | fell |
| Goran Causic Super Lig · 2016 | 24 | €2.3M | €2.0M | flat |
| Oleg Golodyuk Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Samuel Oum Gouet Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Vladislav Kamilov Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €800k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Dortmund | Rio Ave | €1.6M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | B. Dortmund II | Dortmund | Unknown | €400k |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Wolfsburg II | B. Dortmund II | Free / loan | €100k |
| 13 Jul 2020 | Wolfsburg U19 | Wolfsburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Wolfsburg U17 | Wolfsburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Wolfsburg Yth. | Wolfsburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Hannover Yth. | Wolfsburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.