Zé Pedro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zé Pedro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-4.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1733 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1379
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €941k – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-129 Elo); league level up (+157 Elo); relative output up 351% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -68% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1733 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CB | 23 | 1705 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1502 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RB | 2 | 28 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1269 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 20 | 1494 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1350 | 1508 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | CB | 12 | 926 | 30% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 1415 | 1628 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 5 | 209 | 0 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boukary Dramé Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €2.6M | €2.2M | flat |
| Paul Baysse Laliga · 2018 | 30 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Oliver Sorg Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iago Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Gabriel Paletta Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Rubén Duarte Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.3M | fell |
| György Garics Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €1.7M | €600k | fell |
| Mads Pedersen Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Porto | Cagliari | €2.0M | €4.0M |
| 21 Dec 2023 | FC Porto B | Porto | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 21 Jul 2021 | Estrela Amadora | FC Porto B | €250k | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Braga U23 | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Fafe | Braga U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Torcatense | Fafe | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Vizela Y19 | Torcatense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Vizela Y17 | Vizela Y19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sandinenses Y17 | Vizela Y17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Vitória SC U15 | Sandinenses Y17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Sandinenses Y15 | Vitória SC U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2010 | Vitória SC U15 | Sandinenses Y15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Vitória SC Yth | Vitória SC U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.