Javi Puado
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Javi Puado's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-8.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-6.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (678 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 62.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.6M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 678 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1527
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €6.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 68 pts; relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -85% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 678 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 10 | 678 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 1527 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 35 | 2989 | 87% | 12 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.64 | 1528 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 37 | 2349 | 69% | 7 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.52 | 1511 | 1382 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 30 | 2258 | 66% | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.31 | 1530 | 1416 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 15 | 348 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 1517 | 1559 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 4 | 261 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 207 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 3 | 125 | 0 | 1 | 1388 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Zaragoza | 1 | 69 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 5 | 247 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl de Tomás Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €8.0M | €700k | fell |
| Florian Niederlechner Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €4.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Yura Movsisyan Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Martin Braithwaite Ligue 1 · 2018 | 27 | €8.0M | €9.5M | flat |
| Gerard Deulofeu Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Stefano Okaka Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Enes Ünal Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mike Tresor Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €12.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2020 | Real Zaragoza | Espanyol | Free / loan | €900k |
| 16 Nov 2019 | Espanyol | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | RCD Espanyol B | Espanyol | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Espanyol U19 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Espanyol U18 | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Cornellà Youth | Espanyol U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.