Marlon Fossey
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marlon Fossey's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1165 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1341
- Opponent strength
- 1424
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €974k – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 50 pts; role change RM -> RB; relative output up 205% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1165 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 15 | 1165 | 43% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 1424 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 29 | 2527 | 94% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1383 | 1317 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 24 | 1632 | 60% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 1362 | 1334 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 22 | 1663 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 1331 | 1381 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Standard Liège | 5 | 304 | 0 | 0 | 1403 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merveille Bokadi Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| João Basso Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Rúben Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Diego Ângelo Super Lig · 2014 | 28 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Milos Kosanovic Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Nicolas Pallois Ligue 1 · 2016 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Djavan Liga Portugal · 2015 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Marcelo Liga Portugal · 2015 | 26 | €1.7M | €1.7M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sept 2022 | Fulham U21 | Standard Liège | Unknown | €250k |
| 31 May 2022 | Bolton | Fulham U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Jan 2022 | Fulham U23 | Bolton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Dec 2020 | Shrewsbury | Fulham U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Aug 2020 | Fulham U23 | Shrewsbury | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Fulham U18 | Fulham U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Fulham Youth | Fulham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.