Pol Lozano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pol Lozano's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-7.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-7.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (2170 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.0M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2170 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €7.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -40% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2170 | 63% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1498 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 30 | 1958 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 1526 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 4 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1525 | 1382 | 0.98 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 5 | 171 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1609 | 1432 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 6 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1307 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejan Ljubicic Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Matteo Ricci Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Saša Lukić Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Mërgim Vojvoda Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Benjamin Corgnet Ligue 1 · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Saphir Taïder Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Filippo Bandinelli Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Suat Serdar Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Granada CF | Espanyol | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Espanyol | Granada CF | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Girona | Espanyol | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Espanyol | Girona | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | RCD Espanyol B | Espanyol | Unknown | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Espanyol U19 | RCD Espanyol B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Espanyol Youth | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.