John Björkengren
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates John Björkengren's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.43x the positional average in the league (1886 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €744k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1886 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1278
- Opponent strength
- 1260
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €954k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -40% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1886 | 95% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1260 | 1278 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 22 | 1977 | 100% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1306 | 1276 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Randers FC | Superliga | CM | 19 | 1675 | 85% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1297 | 1254 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volodymyr Chesnakov Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Killian Overmeire Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Yuki Kobayashi Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Alexander Merkel Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Kees Kwakman Eredivisie · 2013 | 30 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Kyrylo Kovalchuk Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Funso Ojo Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Lasse Berg Johnsen Superliga · 2023 | 24 | €1.8M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2023 | Lecce | Randers FC | €300k | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Brescia | Lecce | Free / loan | €500k |
| 18 Jan 2023 | Lecce | Brescia | Free / loan | €600k |
| 4 Oct 2020 | Falkenbergs FF | Lecce | €100k | €600k |
| 4 Jan 2017 | Falkenberg U19 | Falkenbergs FF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.