Bakery Jatta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bakery Jatta's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (918 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 39th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €661k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 918 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1380
- Opponent strength
- 1479
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €488k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -72% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 918 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | RM | 15 | 918 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 1479 | 1380 | 0.94 |
| 2017/18 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | RW | 10 | 294 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.48 | 1463 | 1410 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | RW | 6 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1491 | 1440 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Baptiste Pierazzi Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Nicolas Haas Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Simone Bastoni Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Almog Cohen Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Ronny Bundesliga · 2015 | 29 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Tiberio Guarente Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Fegor Ogude Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Raphael Martinho Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2016 | Without Club | Hamburg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.