Ryotaro Ito
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ryotaro Ito's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-5.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (2229 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.6M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2229 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1401
- Opponent strength
- 1360
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €5.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+99 Elo); role change CM -> AM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 27 | 2229 | 83% | 7 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 1360 | 1401 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 28 | 2018 | 75% | 2 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 1389 | 1302 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 27 | 1796 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 1377 | 1324 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Sint-Truidense VV | 8 | 612 | 3 | 2 | 1504 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Clauss Ligue 1 · 2021 | 29 | €8.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Óscar Scarione Super Lig · 2016 | 31 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vítor Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Sofiane Hanni Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €8.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Hayao Kawabe Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Adilson Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Adam Maher Eredivisie · 2021 | 28 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Renaud Ripart Ligue 1 · 2021 | 28 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Albirex Niigata | Sint-Truiden | Unknown | €1.3M |
| 1 Feb 2022 | Urawa Reds | Albirex Niigata | Unknown | €300k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Mito HollyHock | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | €300k |
| 8 Jul 2021 | Urawa Reds | Mito HollyHock | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Oita Trinita | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Urawa Reds | Oita Trinita | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Mito HollyHock | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | €250k |
| 8 Sept 2017 | Urawa Reds | Mito HollyHock | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Sakuyo HS | Urawa Reds | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.