Marios Tsaousis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marios Tsaousis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €294k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1725 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1261
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €298k – €607k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -3% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1725 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panserraikos Serres | Super League 1 | LB | 23 | 1725 | 74% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 1261 | 1104 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | PAS Giannina | Super League 1 | LB | 19 | 1541 | 66% | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 1260 | 1131 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | LB | 9 | 493 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1219 | 1452 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | LB | 9 | 378 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1363 | 1186 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panserraikos Serres | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Giannina | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 3 | 300 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okan Erdoğan Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Tchamba Superliga · 2022 | 24 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Liam Gordon Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Ahmed Iljazovski Superliga · 2024 | 27 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Giannis Masouras Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Vladyslav Pryimak Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Grant Gillespie Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 26 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Frederik Möller Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2025 | PAOK Saloniki B | Panserraikos | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | PAOK | PAOK Saloniki B | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | PAS Giannina | PAOK | Free / loan | €500k |
| 16 Aug 2023 | PAOK | PAS Giannina | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | PAOK Saloniki B | PAOK | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | PAOK | PAOK Saloniki B | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Spartak Trnava | PAOK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 7 Sept 2020 | PAOK | Spartak Trnava | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Volos NFC | PAOK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | PAOK | Volos NFC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PAOK U19 | PAOK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PAOK U17 | PAOK U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Iraklis U20 | PAOK U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.