Thierry Lutonda
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thierry Lutonda's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1539 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €307k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1539 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1297
- Opponent strength
- 1390
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €293k – €839k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; changed club; league level up (+62 Elo); role change LB -> LM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -30% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1539 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RAAL La Louvière | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 22 | 1539 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 1390 | 1296 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | LB | 11 | 467 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1360 | 1265 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | LB | 13 | 717 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1381 | 1193 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | LM | 33 | 2514 | 82% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 1355 | 1258 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | LB | 9 | 374 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1433 | 1260 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | LB | 21 | 725 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1361 | 1178 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1284 | 1443 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | RAAL La Louvière | 4 | 191 | 0 | 1 | 1319 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 4 | 279 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | RKC Waalwijk | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azer Aliyev Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Marko Bakic Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 26 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Charilaos Charisis Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 23 | €1.0M | €550k | fell |
| Andrew Hjulsager Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 25 | €725k | €2.5M | rose |
| Yasin Pehlivan Super Lig · 2015 | 26 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Pedro Nuno Liga Portugal · 2022 | 27 | €400k | €600k | rose |
| Laurens De Bock Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 27 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Josip Vukovic Liga Portugal · 2019 | 27 | €800k | €650k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2025 | PEC Zwolle | La Louvière | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | RKC Waalwijk | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | RSC Anderlecht | RKC Waalwijk | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | RKC Waalwijk | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €300k |
| 9 Jul 2020 | RSC Anderlecht | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Anderlecht U19 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Anderlecht U17 | Anderlecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Standard Yth | Anderlecht Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.