Mikhail Ignatov

26 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM) · Russia
FK Sochi · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€385k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€672k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€586k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€458k – €949k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€385k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€672k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€586k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mikhail Ignatov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (1512 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 82

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average21.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €696k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationLow-18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.8M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1512 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.24
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.38
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
22 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1197
Opponent strength
1325
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€586k – €1.5M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -58% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1512 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
18 (MID)
Relative output kept
54%–153%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
56%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK SochiPremier LigaAM25151256%310.240.38132511970.56
2024/25FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaAM92128%000.000.23124214700.55
2023/24FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaAM24108140%250.580.48133713830.49
2022/23FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaAM21123646%220.290.23132013940.53
2021/22FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaAM2498236%030.270.29134813590.52
2020/21FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaAM2120%000.000.31131114200.55
2019/20FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaAM1251%000.000.32130013920.63
2018/19FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCM829611%100.300.19134714440.69

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFK Sochi319910—
2024/25Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva622000—
2023/24Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva1059711—
2022/23Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva958412—
2022/23Russian Super CupFK Spartak Moskva145001530
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFK Spartak Moskva5274111578
2021/22Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva417601—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFK Spartak Moskva240001622
2020/21Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva13300—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueFK Spartak Moskva3161001519
2018/19Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva12700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Butta Magomedov
Premier Liga · 2023
26€800k€600kfell
Andrew Hjulsager
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
25€725k€2.5Mrose
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
26€2.0M€500kfell
Yevgen Smirnov
Premier Liga · 2019
26€500k€225kfell
Luis Fariña
Super League 1 · 2017
26€750k€300kfell
May Mahlangu
Jupiler Pro League · 2016
27€1.2M€1.0Mflat
Eduardo
Super League 1 · 2020
27€600k€300kfell
Jonatan Lucca
Liga Portugal · 2021
27€700k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Jul 2025Spartak MoscowFK SochiFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2021Spartak 2Spartak MoscowUnknown€750k
1 Jan 2020Spartak MoscowSpartak 2Unknown€750k
16 Sept 2018Spartak 2Spartak MoscowUnknown€200k
1 Jan 2018Spartak IISpartak 2Unknown€150k
1 Jul 2016Akademia FCSMSpartak IIUnknown€100k
1 Jan 2015CSKA U17Akademia FCSMUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.