
Mikhail Ignatov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mikhail Ignatov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (1512 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €696k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1512 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €586k – €1.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -58% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1512 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | AM | 25 | 1512 | 56% | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 1325 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 9 | 212 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1242 | 1470 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 1081 | 40% | 2 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 1337 | 1383 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 21 | 1236 | 46% | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.23 | 1320 | 1394 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 982 | 36% | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 1348 | 1359 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 2 | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1311 | 1420 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 1 | 25 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1300 | 1392 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Spartak Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 8 | 296 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 1347 | 1444 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 3 | 199 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 6 | 220 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 10 | 597 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 9 | 584 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 5 | 274 | 1 | 1 | 1578 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 4 | 176 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FK Spartak Moskva | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | FK Spartak Moskva | 3 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1519 |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FK Spartak Moskva | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butta Magomedov Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Andrew Hjulsager Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 25 | €725k | €2.5M | rose |
| Jeff Reine-Adélaïde Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 26 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Yevgen Smirnov Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €500k | €225k | fell |
| Luis Fariña Super League 1 · 2017 | 26 | €750k | €300k | fell |
| May Mahlangu Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 27 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Eduardo Super League 1 · 2020 | 27 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Jonatan Lucca Liga Portugal · 2021 | 27 | €700k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | Spartak Moscow | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Spartak 2 | Spartak Moscow | Unknown | €750k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Spartak Moscow | Spartak 2 | Unknown | €750k |
| 16 Sept 2018 | Spartak 2 | Spartak Moscow | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Spartak II | Spartak 2 | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Akademia FCSM | Spartak II | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | CSKA U17 | Akademia FCSM | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.