Lutsharel Geertruida
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lutsharel Geertruida's performance-implied value at EUR 9.3M-21.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.2M-23.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.4M-18.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €17.0M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1685 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1636
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.4M – €18.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+151 Elo); role change CB -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -60% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1685 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | RB | 28 | 1685 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1636 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 24 | 1557 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1490 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1230 | 1565 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 34 | 3041 | 99% | 8 | 5 | 0.38 | 0.18 | 1342 | 1593 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 30 | 2574 | 84% | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 1333 | 1639 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 28 | 1712 | 56% | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1366 | 1609 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 30 | 2253 | 74% | 5 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.17 | 1356 | 1457 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 17 | 1045 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1362 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 2 | 17 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1285 | 1502 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 621 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2023/24 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 8 | 750 | 0 | 1 | 1514 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 278 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | 1486 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 177 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1274 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1395 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Kelly Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €18.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Jamal Lewis Premier League · 2021 | 23 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Scott McKenna Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Arthur Masuaku Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Fabián Balbuena Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Wesley Hoedt Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Kurt Zouma Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €28.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Sunderland | Leipzig | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Leipzig | Sunderland | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Feyenoord | Leipzig | €20.0M | €32.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Feyenoord U19 | Feyenoord | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sparta Youth | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Spartaan Yth. | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Overmaas Jeugd | Spartaan Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.