Lloyd Kelly
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lloyd Kelly's performance-implied value at EUR 12.7M-36.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.8M-27.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.8M-28.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €21.7M vs market €23.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2998 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.8M – €28.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 49 pts; league level down (-41 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -46% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 35 | 2998 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1504 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 12 | 1015 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1427 | 1629 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 10 | 301 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 1523 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | LB | 23 | 1556 | 45% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1578 | 1496 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 23 | 2041 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1561 | 1425 | 1.23 |
| 2019/20 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 8 | 638 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1652 | 1415 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 769 | 1 | 1 | 1586 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Danilo Serie A · 2021 | 30 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Benedikt Höwedes Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Neven Subotic Bundesliga · 2015 | 27 | €14.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Amir Rrahmani Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Kyle Walker Premier League · 2016 | 26 | €15.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Jan Vertonghen Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €19.0M | €28.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Newcastle | Juventus | €17.2M | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Juventus | Newcastle | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Newcastle | Juventus | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Bournemouth | Newcastle | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bristol City | Bournemouth | €14.8M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Bristol U18 | Bristol City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.