
Jonah Ayunga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonah Ayunga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1142 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €212k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1142 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1102
- Opponent strength
- 1220
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €161k – €349k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-75 Elo); relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -16% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1142 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 22 | 1142 | 38% | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.42 | 1220 | 1102 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 23 | 916 | 31% | 2 | 4 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 1241 | 1177 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 17 | 747 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.49 | 1259 | 1192 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 19 | 1288 | 43% | 3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.48 | 1306 | 1217 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | St. Mirren FC | 4 | 252 | 0 | 2 | 1313 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kane Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 30 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Felipe Rodrigues Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Jordan Jones Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Nikola Trujic Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Maksym Marusych Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Rangel Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Jordy Hiwula Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 29 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Fredrik Brustad Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 30 | €400k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Morecambe FC | St. Mirren | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 26 Jul 2021 | Bristol Rovers | Morecambe FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jul 2020 | Havant & Water. | Bristol Rovers | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sutton Utd | Havant & Water. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Dec 2018 | Havant & Water. | Sutton Utd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Nov 2018 | Sutton Utd | Havant & Water. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jul 2018 | Brighton U23 | Sutton Utd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2018 | Poole Town | Brighton U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Brighton U23 | Poole Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Galway United | Brighton U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jul 2017 | Brighton U23 | Galway United | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Jul 2017 | Sligo Rovers | Brighton U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 23 Jan 2017 | Brighton U23 | Sligo Rovers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Nov 2016 | Burgess Hill | Brighton U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Oct 2016 | Brighton U23 | Burgess Hill | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Dorchester | Brighton U21 | €66k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.