Jonah Ayunga

29 yrs · Striker · Kenya
St. Mirren FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2026
Market value
€350k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€103k – €384k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€225k – €445k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€161k – €349k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€159k – €342k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€103k – €384k
Model value (performance-implied)€225k – €445k
Projected value (24 months)€161k – €349k
Dashed line: current market value (€350k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jonah Ayunga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1142 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 81

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average1.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €212k vs market €350k
Expected appreciationLow-17% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €450k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1142 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.24
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.42
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
2 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1102
Opponent strength
1220
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€161k – €349k

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-75 Elo); relative output down 31% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -16% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1142 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
12 (ATT)
Relative output kept
75%–114%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
67%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipST22114238%300.240.42122011020.31
2024/25St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipST2391631%240.590.63124111770.34
2023/24St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipST1774725%200.240.49125911920.34
2022/23St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipST19128843%320.350.48130612170.40

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC17400—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingSt. Mirren FC4252021313
2023/24Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC28300—
2022/23Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC14600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Chris Kane
Scottish Premiership · 2024
30€350k€350kflat
Felipe Rodrigues
Premier Liga · 2024
29€400k€400kflat
Jordan Jones
Scottish Premiership · 2023
29€400k€400kflat
Nikola Trujic
Super League 1 · 2021
29€300k€300kflat
Maksym Marusych
Premier Liga · 2023
30€200k€200kflat
Rangel
Premier Liga · 2024
30€300k€300kflat
Jordy Hiwula
Scottish Premiership · 2023
29€300k€150kfell
Fredrik Brustad
Scottish Premiership · 2019
30€400k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022Morecambe FCSt. MirrenUnknownData unavailable
26 Jul 2021Bristol RoversMorecambe FCUnknownData unavailable
29 Jul 2020Havant & Water.Bristol RoversUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Sutton UtdHavant & Water.Free / loanData unavailable
21 Dec 2018Havant & Water.Sutton UtdFree / loanData unavailable
22 Nov 2018Sutton UtdHavant & Water.Free / loanData unavailable
12 Jul 2018Brighton U23Sutton UtdFree / loanData unavailable
31 May 2018Poole TownBrighton U23Free / loanData unavailable
31 Jan 2018Brighton U23Poole TownFree / loanData unavailable
31 Aug 2017Galway UnitedBrighton U23Free / loanData unavailable
31 Jul 2017Brighton U23Galway UnitedFree / loanData unavailable
28 Jul 2017Sligo RoversBrighton U23Free / loanData unavailable
23 Jan 2017Brighton U23Sligo RoversFree / loanData unavailable
24 Nov 2016Burgess HillBrighton U23Free / loanData unavailable
24 Oct 2016Brighton U23Burgess HillFree / loanData unavailable
1 Feb 2016DorchesterBrighton U21€66kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.