Roman Evgenjev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Roman Evgenjev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 21.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €534k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 731 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1371
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €391k – €873k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; relative output up 349% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -48% to +18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 731 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 9 | 731 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1371 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 1389 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1265 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1987 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1334 | 1257 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 29 | 2326 | 86% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1319 | 1270 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 18 | 1096 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1339 | 1374 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 27 | 2336 | 87% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1351 | 1391 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1021 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1368 | 1362 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 18 | 1493 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1419 | 1369 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 5 | 359 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 4 | 258 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 4 | 289 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 8 | 636 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Dinamo Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1373 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Menno Koch Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Raúl Silva Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €900k | €5.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Burnet Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| André Micael Liga Portugal · 2018 | 29 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Artem Mamin Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Eren Albayrak Super Lig · 2018 | 27 | €800k | €325k | fell |
| Zeki Yavru Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €400k | €775k | rose |
| Aleksey Nikitin Premier Liga · 2019 | 27 | €800k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2022 | Dynamo Moscow | KS Samara | €60k | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dynamo M II | Dinamo Moscow | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Dynamo 2 | Dynamo M II | Unknown | €225k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Dynamo U17 | Dynamo 2 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Dynamo M II | Dynamo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Dynamo U17 | Dynamo M II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.