Mads Emil Madsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mads Emil Madsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-3.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (1330 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1330 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1397
- Opponent strength
- 1306
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; changed club; team strength up (+67 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -35% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1330 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 13 | 722 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1306 | 1359 | 0.47 |
| 2025/26 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 7 | 608 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1238 | 1441 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1755 | 89% | 5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 1308 | 1329 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 10 | 696 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1236 | 1356 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Aarhus GF | Superliga | CM | 20 | 1534 | 77% | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 1288 | 1331 | 0.47 |
| 2019/20 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CM | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 0 | 7 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 1285 | 1098 | 0.41 |
| 2017/18 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CM | 1 | 22 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1351 | 1183 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Silkeborg IF | Superliga | CM | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1305 | 1188 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 402 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 7 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 4 | 253 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aarhus GF | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1492 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Aarhus GF | 3 | 195 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | Silkeborg IF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeca Super League 1 · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| André Simões Super League 1 · 2017 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Volodymyr Chesnakov Premier Liga · 2016 | 28 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Viktor Elm Eredivisie · 2014 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Roman Zobnin Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Sondre Tronstad Eredivisie · 2023 | 28 | €1.6M | €1.6M | flat |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Paulinho Superliga · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Aarhus GF | Copenhagen | €4.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Slavia Praha | Aarhus GF | €700k | €600k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | LASK | Slavia Praha | €1.0M | €900k |
| 27 Jul 2020 | Silkeborg IF | LASK | €1.0M | €625k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Silkeborg U19 | Silkeborg IF | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Silkeborg Yth. | Silkeborg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.