Cody Gakpo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cody Gakpo's performance-implied value at EUR 50.2M-73.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 35.5M-68.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 25.1M-58.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (2749 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €52.5M vs market €60.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2749 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1682
- Opponent strength
- 1594
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €25.1M – €58.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 24 pts; team strength down (-117 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -44% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 36 | 2749 | 80% | 7 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 1594 | 1682 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 35 | 1938 | 57% | 10 | 5 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 1562 | 1800 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | ST | 35 | 1646 | 48% | 8 | 5 | 0.71 | 0.37 | 1546 | 1755 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | ST | 21 | 1465 | 43% | 7 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 1564 | 1771 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 14 | 1126 | 37% | 9 | 12 | 1.68 | 0.64 | 1357 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 27 | 1910 | 62% | 12 | 13 | 1.18 | 0.55 | 1335 | 1641 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 23 | 1674 | 55% | 7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 1330 | 1567 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 25 | 1458 | 62% | 7 | 7 | 0.86 | 0.41 | 1354 | 1553 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 16 | 391 | 13% | 1 | 5 | 1.38 | 0.35 | 1350 | 1634 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1474 | 1636 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 11 | 470 | 2 | 1 | 1625 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 4 | 287 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 3 | 259 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 8 | 369 | 3 | 1 | 1686 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 8 | 636 | 4 | 1 | 1559 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 4 | 282 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | 1611 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 371 | 3 | 2 | 1601 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 3 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1807 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 1749 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 448 | 2 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 306 | 2 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 239 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1722 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 225 | 1 | 1 | 1516 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 169 | 3 | 0 | 1416 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 335 | 0 | 1 | 1515 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 282 | 1 | 0 | 1437 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 103 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 143 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1745 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Lacazette Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €70.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Roberto Firmino Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €38.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Juan Mata Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €34.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Ángel Correa Laliga · 2021 | 26 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Lucas Moura Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €32.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Willian Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €32.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| Álvaro Morata Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €36.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €50.0M | €18.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2023 | PSV | Liverpool | €42.0M | €60.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PSV U19 | PSV | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | PSV U17 | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PSV Yth. | PSV U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.