Toyosi Olusanya

28 yrs · Striker (also LW) · England
Aberdeen FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€500k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€159k – €535k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€216k – €520k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€204k – €497k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€319k – €361k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€159k – €535k
Model value (performance-implied)€216k – €520k
Projected value (24 months)€204k – €497k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Toyosi Olusanya's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (613 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average2.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.7 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €305k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
613 (21% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.46
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
2 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1119
Opponent strength
1244
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€204k – €497k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -46% to -26%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 613 league minutes last season.
  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
12 (ATT)
Relative output kept
75%–114%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
67%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipST1161321%010.150.46124411190.31
2024/25St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipST31204769%820.440.54125411770.34
2023/24St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipST30115939%530.620.72128711920.34
2022/23St. Mirren FCScottish PremiershipLW1120%000.000.57134312170.40

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC29000—
2025/26Fa CupDoncaster Rovers1900—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingSt. Mirren FC4245201300
2024/25Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC216020—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupSt. Mirren FC11200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sergiy Bolbat
Premier Liga · 2024
31€400k€400kflat
Rostyslav Rusyn
Premier Liga · 2024
29€300k€125kfell
Oleg Vyshnevskyi
Premier Liga · 2024
29€200k€200kflat
Stevie May
Scottish Premiership · 2024
32€250k€75kfell
Alexandros Perogamvrakis
Super League 1 · 2015
27€500k€300kfell
Marcus Haber
Scottish Premiership · 2018
29€300k€175kfell
Clarck N'Sikulu
Super League 1 · 2021
29€500k€300kfell
Maryan Mysyk
Premier Liga · 2023
27€300k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Aberdeen FCHoustonFree / loan€500k
23 Jan 2026HoustonAberdeen FCFree / loan€500k
6 Jan 2026DoncasterHoustonFree / loan€500k
30 Aug 2025HoustonDoncasterFree / loan€600k
23 Apr 2025St. MirrenHouston€585k€800k
31 May 2023ArbroathSt. MirrenFree / loan€200k
25 Jan 2023St. MirrenArbroathFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2022MiddlesbroughSt. MirrenUnknown€200k
20 Aug 2021BillericayMiddlesbroughFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2020CheshuntBillericayFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Gosport BoroughCheshuntFree / loanData unavailable
23 Mar 2018Fleet Town FCGosport BoroughUnknownData unavailable
1 Feb 2018Walton CasualsFleet Town FCFree / loanData unavailable
2 Dec 2017Reading U23Walton CasualsFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Wimbledon U23Reading U23Free / loanData unavailable
11 Dec 2016Kingstonian FCAFC WimbledonFree / loanData unavailable
11 Nov 2016AFC WimbledonKingstonian FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Wimbledon U18AFC WimbledonUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Toyosi Olusanya · MoneyballAI