
Toyosi Olusanya
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Toyosi Olusanya's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (613 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 2.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €305k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 613 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1119
- Opponent strength
- 1244
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €204k – €497k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -46% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 613 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 11 | 613 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 1244 | 1119 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 31 | 2047 | 69% | 8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.54 | 1254 | 1177 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 30 | 1159 | 39% | 5 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1287 | 1192 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 1 | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1343 | 1217 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Doncaster Rovers | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | St. Mirren FC | 4 | 245 | 2 | 0 | 1300 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 160 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergiy Bolbat Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Rostyslav Rusyn Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €300k | €125k | fell |
| Oleg Vyshnevskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Stevie May Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 32 | €250k | €75k | fell |
| Alexandros Perogamvrakis Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Marcus Haber Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 29 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Clarck N'Sikulu Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Maryan Mysyk Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Aberdeen FC | Houston | Free / loan | €500k |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Houston | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Doncaster | Houston | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Houston | Doncaster | Free / loan | €600k |
| 23 Apr 2025 | St. Mirren | Houston | €585k | €800k |
| 31 May 2023 | Arbroath | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €200k |
| 25 Jan 2023 | St. Mirren | Arbroath | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Middlesbrough | St. Mirren | Unknown | €200k |
| 20 Aug 2021 | Billericay | Middlesbrough | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Cheshunt | Billericay | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Gosport Borough | Cheshunt | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 23 Mar 2018 | Fleet Town FC | Gosport Borough | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Walton Casuals | Fleet Town FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Dec 2017 | Reading U23 | Walton Casuals | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Wimbledon U23 | Reading U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Dec 2016 | Kingstonian FC | AFC Wimbledon | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Nov 2016 | AFC Wimbledon | Kingstonian FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Wimbledon U18 | AFC Wimbledon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.