Alex Petkov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alex Petkov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €393k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 996 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1257
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €337k – €795k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -27% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 996 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias | Super League 1 | CB | 14 | 996 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1257 | 1169 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias | 5 | 258 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 347 | 1 | 0 | 1393 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Aurtenetxe Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 26 | €375k | €300k | fell |
| Valeriy Rogozynskyi Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Vangelis Ikonomou Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 27 | €375k | €500k | rose |
| Anastasios Tsokanis Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Josip Tomasevic Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Jordan McMillan Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 26 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Mohamed Ali Ben Salem Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Christopher Braun Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €250k | €450k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | Slask Wroclaw | Kifisia | Unknown | €700k |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Arda Kardzhali | Slask Wroclaw | Free / loan | €700k |
| 2 Mar 2021 | Levski Sofia | Arda Kardzhali | Free / loan | €200k |
| 8 Sept 2020 | Hearts FC B | Levski Sofia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2020 | Brechin City | Hearts FC B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 18 Feb 2020 | Hearts FC B | Brechin City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Clyde FC | Hearts FC B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Hearts FC B | Clyde FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hearts FC U20 | Hearts FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Apr 2018 | Berwick Rangers | Hearts FC U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 19 Jan 2018 | Hearts FC U20 | Berwick Rangers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Cherno More U17 | Hearts FC U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.