Jefferson Encada
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jefferson Encada's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €255k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1544 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1346
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €250k – €513k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -33% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1544 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | RB | 26 | 1544 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 1346 | 1195 | 0.58 |
| 2019/20 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 1 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1414 | 1418 | 0.59 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksiy Maydanevych Premier Liga · 2019 | 28 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Nikola Gulan Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 28 | €400k | €550k | rose |
| Cristian Tassano Liga Portugal · 2023 | 27 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Borja López Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Jordan Mustoe Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Rémy Amieux Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Gabriel Zakuani Super League 1 · 2014 | 28 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Yuval Shpungin Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €500k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | Pharco FC | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Leixões | Pharco FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Guimarães B | Leixões | Unknown | €100k |
| 27 Jul 2018 | Sporting B | Guimarães B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Olhanense | Sporting B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Aug 2017 | Sporting B | Olhanense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.